NECOFS-Coastal Inundation Forecast System: Predictions of Coastal Flooding for Past and Future Extratropical Nor’easter Storms

Northeast U.S. Model, NERACOOS (ME, NH, MA, RI, CT)
Submitted by:
Tom Shyka
NERACOOS, Product and Engagement Manager
Project URLs:

Project Description

As a model component of NERACOOS, the joint team of University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution developed the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) and placed it into 24/7 forecast operations beginning in 2007. NECOFS is an integrated atmosphere-ocean-wave model system in which the ocean model domain covers the northeast US coastal region with a horizontal resolution of 10-15 km in the open ocean, 0.5-5 km on the shelf, and down to ~10 m in estuaries, inner bays, inlets and harbors. NECOFS includes four subdomain wave-current coupled inundation FVCOM systems in Scituate Harbor, Boston Harbor/Mass Bay, MA; Hampton-Seabrook Estuary, NH and Saco Bay, ME that provide operational three-day forecasts of inundation with a refined resolution of ~10 m. The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC), state and local organizations continue to be key collaborators and daily users of the predictions from this system. NECOFS-inundation system has successfully forecasted storm surges, surface waves and flooding in past Nor'easter storms. Examples for the collaboration with stakeholders for coastal flooding will be presented. NECOFS has also been used to project the impact of sea level rise on the future storm-induced coastal inundation and wave run-up in Mass Bay and Boston Harbor with consideration of a hundred-year storm event. Results will be represented.

Key Successes

Development and 24/7 operations of a regional atmosphere-ocean-wave model system.


Improving the delivery of products and services for stakeholders
Transitioning a component of the modeling system to NOAA’s NOS
Improving the technique for the prediction of coastal inundation due to wave runup induced splashing or overtopping
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